El Niño Phenomenon Forecast and Coffee Agriculture Impact in Perú
As we navigate through the remainder of 2023, it is crucial to stay informed about the evolving climatic conditions. The Multisectoral Commission for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has communicated that the state of "Coastal El Niño Alert" will persist until the summer of 2024.
The forecast indicates a continued presence of the El Niño Phenomenon in the northern and central areas of the Peruvian sea, with its magnitude ranging from strong to moderate. This underscores the importance of vigilance and preparedness for coffee producers.
Throughout July to September 2023, we anticipate higher-than-normal air temperatures along the entire Peruvian coast, accompanied by light rains on the northern coast. During this period, it is likely that river flows and levels will range from normal to below normal between July and October.
As we look ahead to the summer of 2024, a shift from weak to moderate El Niño conditions may occur. This transitional phase could bring about changes in weather patterns, including the possibility of moderate to heavy rains on the coast and in the highlands of northern Peru.
In the agricultural sector, it's essential to note that El Niño events can make coffee plants more susceptible to pests.
Monthly workshops, conducted by our field team with partner organizations, emphasize the benefits of shade-grown coffee in mitigating climate change and the El Niño phenomenon. Key points covered include biodiversity conservation, reduction of soil erosion, and local climate regulation. Shade-grown coffee serves as a valuable strategy during El Niño by enhancing drought resistance, protecting against extreme temperatures, and reducing vulnerability to landslides and erosion. Shade-grown coffee emerges as a valuable strategy to counter its adverse effects:
Drought Resistance: The trees in the shade system assist in conserving soil moisture, enhancing the coffee plants' resilience to droughts, a prevalent occurrence during El Niño events.
Protection Against Extreme Temperatures: The shade offered by trees maintains cooler and more stable temperatures, crucial in coping with prolonged heat waves.
Reduced Vulnerability to Landslides and Erosion: During extreme weather events, such as heavy rains linked to El Niño, shade coffee cultivation proves less susceptible to landslides and erosion.
Let's work together to navigate these challenges and ensure the resilience of Peruvian producers.
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