Navigating Climate Risk: What El Niño Means for the 2026 Coffee Cycle

Across coffee-producing regions, El Niño is often discussed as a climate event. On the ground, its impact is more complex.

Current projections indicate increased temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across Latin America, with coastal El Niño conditions already being monitored in Peru and broader Pacific signals expected to develop from mid-2026.

While the direct effects on crops are important, one of the most critical and less visible impacts is how these conditions affect producer behavior and local economies. When climate instability leads to crop losses or uncertainty, communities may adapt in ways that introduce additional risks, including expansion into forested areas or reduced investment in farm management.

Understanding this dynamic is essential to anticipating supply chain stability.

Early Signals from Origin

Across Peru, Colombia, and Honduras, teams are observing shifts in seasonality and climate patterns.

In Peru, coastal regions are already experiencing higher temperatures and reduced cold periods, which can influence crop cycles, marine ecosystems, and broader economic activity.

In producing regions, fluctuating humidity and irregular rainfall patterns are beginning to affect flowering, cherry development, and harvest timing. While it remains early to quantify full production impacts, variability across altitudes and regions is expected.

Risks to Quality and Production

Climate variability introduces several technical challenges that directly affect coffee quality and yields.

Fluctuating humidity creates favorable conditions for diseases such as coffee leaf rust and anthracnose, increasing pressure on farm management practices.

At the same time, excessive rainfall or inconsistent drying conditions can complicate post-harvest processing, particularly in regions with limited infrastructure.

Beyond coffee itself, agroforestry systems are also affected. Trees weakened by drought or excess moisture become more vulnerable, reducing biomass growth and overall system resilience. In some cases, lower survival rates in reforestation efforts and reduced productivity in associated crops such as cacao are also being observed.

These factors reinforce the importance of both technical support and infrastructure in maintaining consistent quality.

The Human Factor Behind Climate Impact

Producers are approaching this cycle with caution.

While many remain adaptable and experienced in managing variability, the uncertainty surrounding climate patterns influences decision-making at every level. This can include adjustments in harvest timing, more conservative investment in inputs, or changes in commercialization strategies.

Labor dynamics and income stability are also directly impacted, particularly when yields or quality become less predictable.

Adaptation on the Ground

Across our origin projects, several measures are being reinforced to mitigate risk:

• Improved shade management to stabilize microclimates

• Soil health practices to strengthen plant resilience

• Enhanced post-harvest infrastructure to secure drying conditions

• Continuous climate monitoring to adjust planting and harvesting timelines

  
  

More broadly, integrated agroforestry design and diversified income strategies are key to reducing vulnerability at the farm level.

Investments in infrastructure, including dry mills and processing systems, also play a critical role in maintaining consistency despite external variability.

Operational and Logistical Considerations

El Niño can also affect operations beyond the farm.

Access to remote areas may become more difficult due to weather conditions, impacting field monitoring, harvesting logistics, and transport timelines. In parallel, delays in measurement campaigns, planting cycles, and maintenance activities can occur if conditions become more extreme.

Maintaining flexibility and proactive planning is essential in this context.

Outlook for the 2026 Cycle

In Peru, current forecasts maintain an official El Niño Coastal Alert, with the possibility of a weak to moderate event extending into 2027.

At this stage, it remains too early to anticipate a severe or extreme event. However, continuous monitoring and early mitigation strategies will be key in shaping outcomes for the upcoming harvest.

One consistent expectation across origins is that availability of high-quality coffee may tighten if climate conditions intensify, particularly for higher altitude and well-processed lots.

What This Means for Buyers

El Niño should not be viewed as a single event, but as a dynamic factor influencing multiple aspects of the supply chain over time.

In this context, buyers can strengthen their sourcing strategies by:

• Prioritizing long-term relationships with adaptable and well-supported producer groups

• Securing key volumes earlier in the cycle, particularly for differentiated coffees

• Maintaining flexibility in planning as conditions evolve

• Recognizing the structural pressures affecting availability and quality

  
  

Periods like this also present opportunities. Reduced supply of high-quality coffees often reinforces the value of strong origin relationships and early positioning on differentiated lots.

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