Peru 2026 Harvest Update: Lower Volumes, Tightening Supply

As the 2026 harvest begins to unfold across Peru, early indicators confirm a tighter supply environment compared to last year.

Current estimates point to a decline in total production of approximately 10 to 15 percent, driven by a combination of climate variability and structural factors at farm level.

While the harvest is still in its early stages, confidence in this projection is increasing as field data and cooperative feedback begin to align.

What is driving the decline

The expected reduction in volume is not linked to a single factor, but rather to a combination of pressures. Climate variability has played a central role, with irregular conditions affecting plant development and overall productivity. At the same time, agronomic management, input access, and ongoing farm-level adjustments have also influenced yields. These dynamics are not uniform across regions, but together they are shaping a national production outlook that is slightly below last year’s levels.

Early harvest signals from the field

The harvest is currently progressing in its initial phase, with activity concentrated in lower altitude zones.

• Low zones have reached roughly 35 percent harvest progress

• Mid and high altitude regions have not yet entered full harvest activity

• Commercialization remains limited, with only about 25 percent of volumes entering the market so far

  
  

At this stage, much of the coffee being sold is moving quickly to cover immediate costs such as labor.

From a quality standpoint, early results show:

• Yields below 65 percent

• Presence of defects such as broca (coffee borer), affecting value

This is typical of early harvest conditions, but it reinforces the importance of timing when evaluating quality potential.

Seasonality and availability

Peru continues to offer a broad harvest window due to its diverse geography, but supply remains highly structured throughout the season.

• Main harvest runs from March to December

• Peak production is concentrated between May and September

  
  

San Martín and Cajamarca continue to be the primary contributors to volume, while Amazonas shows progressive growth during peak months. This staggered structure allows for continuity of supply, but with reduced overall volume, availability will be more selective this year.

Market Behavior and Supply Pressure

The current market dynamic is adding another layer of complexity. Local prices remain elevated, driven in part by cooperatives and exporters needing to fulfill existing commitments. In some cases, transactions are occurring under pressure, even at reduced margins.

At the same time:

• Smaller and mid-sized exporters are more active

• Larger players are showing caution at current price levels

• Liquidity constraints are influencing purchasing decisions

  
  

This creates a market where coffee is available, but not always at viable or sustainable price levels.

What This Means for Buyers

The 2026 Peru crop is not defined by scarcity alone, but by selectivity. Lower overall volume, combined with early quality variability and market pressure, means that:

• Availability will tighten as the season progresses

• Certain qualities and certifications may become more competitive

• Timing will play a critical role in securing desired profiles

  
  

Outlook for the Remainder of the Harvest

As the harvest moves into mid and high altitude regions, greater clarity will emerge on final volumes and quality.

At this stage:

• The current projection of a 10 to 15 percent reduction remains realistic

• Climate conditions remain generally favorable, supporting crop development

• Final outcomes will depend on how the next phases of harvest evolve

  
  

Recommendations for Sourcing

In this context, we recommend:

• Engaging early with origin partners to secure key volumes

• Maintaining flexibility on timing and profiles

• Prioritizing relationships with structured and reliable supply chains

• Monitoring quality evolution as higher altitude coffees come into the market

Final note

Peru remains a consistent and high-potential origin, but 2026 will require a more strategic approach to sourcing.

We continue to work closely with our partners on the ground to ensure visibility, transparency, and continuity of supply throughout the season.

If you would like to review availability or discuss your sourcing strategy, our team is available.