2025/26 Harvest Update: Outlook vs. Reality in Honduras

As the 2025/26 harvest season progresses, we would like to share an update based on recent field data from Aroma Café & Miel (ACM), comparing the Harvest Outlook published in November with current on the ground conditions. Overall, the season is developing in line with expectations, confirming a scenario of stability, consistency, and moderate growth.

Harvest Progress and Field Conditions

Current harvest conditions remain aligned with the projections outlined in ACM’s November Harvest Outlook. The season began in an orderly manner, with normal field development and no major deviations from initial forecasts. Estimated harvest progress by zone is as follows:

• Low altitude zones: approximately 80 percent completed, with harvesting concluding by the end of February

• Mid altitude zones: approximately 40 percent completed, with harvesting expected to conclude by the end of March

• High altitude zones: approximately 20 percent completed, with harvesting extending through April

National harvest progress is currently estimated at 33 percent. This reflects the concentration of productive farms in higher altitude regions between 1,100 and 1,700 meters above sea level. While some localized climatic adjustments have occurred, these have not impacted overall harvest performance. Field observations remain consistent with IHCAFE statistics and confirm a scenario of productive stability.

Volumes and Production Outlook

Initial volume projections have proven to be accurate. Available data continues to support expectations of moderate growth for the 2025/26 season. Some localized variations have been observed due to cold fronts, irregular rainfall, labor availability, and production cost pressures. However, none of these factors have significantly altered expected total volumes at the national level.

Importantly, no structural surprises have emerged compared to the original Outlook. The challenges observed, such as minor shifts in ripening pace, were already anticipated within the projected scenarios. In several regions, crop development has been particularly strong, reinforcing confidence in overall performance.

Climatic Behavior and Ripening Patterns

From a climatic perspective, rainfall, flowering, and ripening have largely followed expected patterns. Some regional variability linked to cold fronts has resulted in slightly staggered ripening, without compromising crop development.Estimated ripening levels are currently:

• Low altitude zones: approximately 90 percent

• Mid altitude zones: approximately 65 percent

• High altitude zones: approximately 35 percent

  
  

These conditions remain well within manageable parameters for quality and volume objectives.

Quality and Post Harvest Performance

Quality indicators for the 2025/26 harvest remain within the anticipated range. Preliminary cupping results show consistent cup profiles, and post harvest handling has met expected standards for traceability and differentiation. Overall, quality outcomes continue to align with projections shared earlier in the season.

Minor calendar adjustments were observed in some higher altitude areas, where harvesting began slightly later than initially forecast. However, the peak harvest period remains centered between December and February, and operations continue to progress smoothly.

Producer Engagement and Infrastructure Impact

Producer engagement has remained strong since the publication of the Harvest Outlook. Producers are aligned with volume and quality targets and continue to apply appropriate harvesting and post harvest practices. This alignment reinforces confidence in the consistency of supply through the remainder of the season.

The new ACM dry mill has played a meaningful role in supporting these results. Improved processing efficiency, stronger quality control, and maintained traceability standards have contributed positively to meeting the objectives set out in the original Outlook.

Looking Ahead

The comparison between projections and current results highlights the value of continuous climate monitoring, periodic forecast updates, and sustained technical support for producers. These learnings will strengthen planning and forecasting for future seasons, particularly under increasingly variable climatic conditions.

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